How much should you send before demand is proven?
The first China shipment should test a defined sales and operating plan. Start with a limited product selection whose acceptance, packaging and intended channel can be reviewed clearly. Estimate demand by SKU and channel, then label which figures come from actual orders, partner commitments or forecasts. A distributor’s expression of interest is different from a purchase order. Keep these inputs separate when deciding how much stock to commit. This article proposes a planning method; it does not prescribe a universal inventory level.
Match stock to the channel’s delivery pattern
The U.S. International Trade Administration’s China ecommerce guide notes that platforms have different audiences and product specialities. That supports a channel-specific demand assessment, rather than treating the market as one order stream. Ask your commercial team how each channel sells the product: individual units, sets, mixed baskets or wholesale cartons. Confirm the packaging and inventory unit needed at dispatch. The same projected unit sales can create very different receiving, picking and replenishment work depending on that order pattern.
Distinguish physical stock from dispatchable stock
For your planning worksheet, classify stock as expected, physically received, under review, dispatchable, allocated or unavailable. These are proposed business definitions to agree with your provider, not claims about a particular software installation. A shipment on the water cannot satisfy today’s dispatch requirement. Goods awaiting a document decision or quality review should not be counted as immediately available. Ask for a report that makes the difference visible by SKU and batch, and nominate the person who can authorise a stock-status change.
Set a replenishment trigger around usable supply
A useful starting formula is: reorder threshold equals expected demand during replenishment lead time plus an agreed uncertainty buffer. Decide what counts as available stock and which incoming shipments are reliable enough to include. Split lead time into preparation, international transport, arrival processing and warehouse availability. Use actual milestones and observed variation as the project develops. Do not borrow a fixed number of days from an unrelated lane. A regulatory or document hold needs a decision owner, not an optimistic arrival date in the forecast.
Put a slow-stock decision in the launch plan
Set a review point for weak sales, approaching expiry and a changed packaging requirement. Ask what commercial actions remain viable and which stock movements need further customs or product review. Define who can approve a promotion, a return-to-origin assessment or another proposed disposition. Keep those choices separate from routine fulfilment instructions. For products with shelf-life constraints, include the remaining life required by the receiving channel. A larger first shipment can reduce shipment frequency while increasing the amount of stock exposed to an untested demand assumption.
Our view: use the first cycle to improve the second
We recommend evaluating the pilot through forecast error, dispatchable-stock availability, exception frequency and the cost of completing orders. Record the definitions and observation period before comparing results. Use the first cycle to revise purchasing and packaging decisions; avoid declaring success from gross stock arrivals alone. A TAPO enquiry can begin with your selected SKUs, channel plan, demand assumptions, storage needs and proposed replenishment rhythm. We assess the logistics arrangement for that brief rather than presenting one stock quantity as suitable for every overseas brand.